UAE
UAE
20 December 2021
Notwithstanding all the confusion at the time of the Bank’s November MPC meeting, when the market was subliminally told to brace for a rate hike, only for the BoE to then ‘disappoint’ and fail to deliver, we believe that last week’s (token 15bps) rate increase in the Bank Rate to 0.25% will soon prove to have been a policy mistake. Here’s why...
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
15 December 2021
Our latest Macro Strategy publication in which we set our Global Rates and GCC Macro outlooks for 2022.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
16 September 2021
In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers a macroeconomic snapshot of the region, our outlook on the GCC economy and oil market, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.
Mohamed Ali AlShamsi, Analyst
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst
07 September 2021
The positive macroeconomic diversification story of the United Arab Emirates moved to a new chapter this week as the government announced on September 5 its latest strategy to stimulate the domestic economy. Entitled ‘Projects of the 50’ to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the country in December this year, the government will embark on a series of stimulatory investments and also aim to ease residency rules for expats, all of which is designed to build the country’s status as a global hub for business and finance.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
08 July 2021
Back in Q4 2020 the global macro outlook for 2021 was generally founded on cautious optimism. Rates were anchored, the fiscal policy sluice gates were wide open, particularly so in the wake of President Biden’s election and the Covid-19 vaccination drive was well underway. Since then, financial markets have largely continued to price in a brightening horizon, notwithstanding a few road bumps and obstacles to risk asset sentiment along the way. There is still reason for optimism today, but perhaps not to the extent that the world was holding its breath for back in late 2020.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
17 May 2021
The buffeting headwinds and tailwinds of the current turbulent global macroeconomic landscape continue to fuel reassessment of the global interest rate outlook. In this respect, please find our latest analysis and outlook for global rates, entitled ‘Bearing All’.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
3 March 2021
Our latest macro strategy analysis in which we offer a preview of today’s U.K. Budget that will be delivered by Chancellor Sunak to the House of Commons.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
28 January 2021
Our latest macroeconomic analysis in which we discuss some of the key takeaways from this week’s (virtual) Davos 2021 symposium.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
25 January 2021
Our latest macroeconomic analysis in which we discuss some of the key macroeconomic risks facing global markets in 2021.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
17 December 2020
Our latest macro strategy publication in which we present our FAB House View of the Global Rates Outlook for 2021.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
07 September 2020
Our latest Macro Strategy outlook on U.K. fundamentals and the increasing risk of a ‘no trade deal’ Brexit at the end of this year.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
24 August 2020
In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a very simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers a macroeconomic snapshot of the region, our outlook on the GCC economy and oil market, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.
Glenn Wepener, Simon Ballard, Rakesh Sahu, Mohamed Al Shamsi - Market Insights & Strategy
04 August 2020
Our latest FAB Macro Strategy report in which we present an update on the Brexit situation. Amid all the focus on Covid-19 around the globe, we almost seem to have lost sight of what appears to increasingly be a Brexit cliff edge on December 31.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
28 May 2020
Our latest macro strategy publication entitled ‘Seeing Red’ in which we revisit and revise our 2020 GDP growth forecasts and outlook for the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
06 May 2020
With the global economy having been floored by COVID-19 over the past few months there is now much debate and argument as to whether the trajectory of the aspirational global economic recovery over the coming months might be ‘V-‘ or ‘U-‘shaped in nature, or indeed some other letter. In our latest macroeconomic strategy piece we analyze the prospects for such recovery post Covid-19
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
10 March 2020
In light of the huge market moves seen overnight, led predominantly by the sell off in oil post Saudi Arabia's announcement of an increase in supply, and resultant correction across various asset classes globally, please find attached our initial read of the situation..
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
12 February 2020
The global macro environment of the past 5 years, in the post sovereign debt crisis era, has seen a seismic shift in financial market dynamics, especially in the Eurozone as a result of central bank intervention. In this paper we explore the current and deepening metrics surrounding negative bond yields, and whether this is now a ticking time-bomb.
Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist
03 February 2020
In this report we provide our thoughts on the potential implications of the Coronavirus on the global economy and markets. Please read on.
Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist
08 January 2020
While the macro spotlight was firmly on the shifting sands of monetary policy last year as the Federal Reserve cut rates three times, as well as on U.S./China trade tensions and the subsequent cuts to global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, we herewith now offer what we believe may be global markets’ Top 10 Macro Challenges for 2020. This list is not exhaustive by any means, but is designed to be thought-provoking as investors finalise their investment strategies for the New Year.
Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist
18 December 2019
Our latest update on FAB’s ‘House View’ report in which we analyze our House View on Global Rates (2020 Outlook), entitled ‘Forecasting Breaks in the Clouds’.Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist
13 December 2019
Our macro strategy reaction and outlook to the U.K. General Election results. We hope you will find it informative and useful.
Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist
20 August 2019
We have long held the view that given the split, divisive nature of the Brexit polemic that a hard, no-deal result would likely be the only feasible outcome. We see no way for a compromise to be achieved in time and of late, with the installation of the new Boris Johnson pro-Brexit administration, the market seems to be increasingly in agreement with us.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
08 August 2019
In the context of recent market volatility, the traders within FAB’s Global Markets team have provided their views and insights on interest rates, yield curves, currencies and oil.
FAB Global Markets
30 July 2019
With Boris Johnson having won the keys to No.10 Downing Street and the phrase ‘hard, no-deal Brexit’ being used by him and many of his government ministers, the market is now waking up to reality. We maintain our long-held view that a ‘hard Brexit’ will be the most likely outcome to the polemic, a scenario that GBP has not priced in.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
19 June 2019
Our latest update on FAB’s ‘House View’ on U.S., Eurozone and U.K. interest rates. For each central bank (Fed, ECB and BOE) we discuss current macroeconomic conditions, challenges and opportunities facing policy makers and set out our 12-month outlook expectations for rates.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
02 May 2019
Our current ‘house view’ on the oil market : Despite the sharp drop in Iranian and Venezuelan exports, global producers are still able to pump enough extra crude to prevent the market from breaking sharply higher in the near term. Equally, better coordinated action by the OPEC/NOPEC countries and the formalization of an ‘OPEC+’ structure, combined with steady demand growth should continue to ensure that a dramatic drop in prices will also be avoided. Thus we maintain our view, which was first expressed in January this year that crude prices should average US$60 (WTI) and US$70 (Brent) in 2019.
Glenn Wepener - Market Insights & Strategy
30 April 2019
Our newly inaugurated publication, First Abu Dhabi Bank’s ‘house view’ on U.S., Eurozone and U.K. interest rates. For each central bank (Fed, ECB and BOE) we discuss current macroeconomic conditions, challenges and opportunities facing policy makers and set out our 12-month outlook expectations for rates.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
28 March 2019
In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a very simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers an economic snapshot of the region, our outlook on oil, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.
Glenn Wepener, Simon Ballard, Mohamed Al Shamsi, Rakesh Sahu - Market Insights & Strategy
18 March 2019
In the context of recent concerns about Oman’s economic and fiscal situation, please find attached our latest analysis of the Sultanate along with an overview of the sovereign’s economy, debt burden, and its plans for reform. Overall, we believe the bearish sentiment on the Oman story is somewhat overdone and feel that comparisons to the Bahrain ‘crisis’ last year are wide of the mark.
Chavan Bhogaita, Glenn Wepener, Simon Ballard, Rakesh Sahu
Market Insights & Strategy
23 January 2019
The GCC fixed income market has experienced a solid start to 2019, both in terms of primary and secondary market performance. We expect this trend to continue as global macro uncertainties further highlight and enhance the relative value appeal of the GCC asset class’ strong underlying fundamentals, making an interesting and compelling case for continued capital investment flows in favour of this region and asset class.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy
02 January 2019
Our suggestions on which potentially major geopolitical and market related risks investors should be keeping an eye on in 2019.
Glenn Wepener & Simon Ballard
Market Insights & Strategy
20 December 2018
Ahead of the FOMC’s December rate decision , Simon Ballard, FAB Macro Strategist spoke to CNBC about his current outlook for U.S. monetary policy and that of the broader global macroeconomic situation.
Simon Ballard
Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
22 November 2018
More than just the pure economic arguments, for and against Brexit, that have driven the narrative over the past two years, it is now political uncertainty that is weighing most heavily on U.K. risk asset, and currency, sentiment. We believe that the Brexit polemic is about to get even more interesting.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
25 September 2018
The Brexit process, or lack thereof, in the U.K. is currently raising more questions among investors than it is answering. What we do know is that the U.K. will exit the EU on March 29th 2019, with or without a ‘deal’. If there is a ‘deal’ then a two year transition period will follow for settling all the minutiae. With the deadline for reaching a deal between Westminster and Brussels – the need to agree terms on the future trading, economic and political relationship between the two regions – becoming ever closer, investors want clarity. In this latest research paper, we attempt to offer some answers to investors’ current concerns and questions over Brexit, as well as to offer some clarity on where the Brexit story and the direction of U.K. risk sentiment may go from here.
Simon Ballard - Executive Director & Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
16 July 2018
The past 12 months have seen crude maintain its bullish mood and this was underlined when Brent tested the US$80 a barrel mark in May this year. Admittedly we have seen a minor technical retracement since then, but the fundamental and geopolitical environment overall still appears supportive for prices going forward. In this report we discuss how much further potential upside is possible in the near to medium term and what factors, both bullish and bearish should one keep an eye.
Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy
11 June 2018
With Bahrain’s current fiscal situation under the media spotlight recently, we conducted an analysis of the issue and conclude that the economic picture may not be as bad as it appears on the surface.
Chavan Bhogaita, Managing Director & Head of Market Insights & Strategy Glenn Wepener, Exec. Director & Geopolitical Analyst Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist Rakesh Sahu, Analyst
06 June 2018
In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a very simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers an economic snapshot of the region, our outlook on oil, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.
Glenn Wepener, Geopolitical Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Simon Ballard, Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Mohamed Al Shamsi, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
19 April 2018
In our latest review of UAE real estate, “Foundations for Optimism” we find that a soft, but nonetheless cautiously optimistic tone continues to characterize the UAE property market. After the correction seen in real estate prices during 2014/2015 the market is now showing some encouraging signs of underlying price support, although with evidence of extensive incentives being used by landlords to retain incumbent tenants or entice new ones, market conditions are still far from strong.
Simon Ballard, Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
08 March 2018
ECB president Draghi, ever the wordsmith, now needs to tread a very delicate line between conveying the idea of sustainable Eurozone growth and scaring investors with an overly optimistic and hawkish rhetoric. The market hope is now that he shows a conviction in a Goldilocks Eurozone economy that is now running neither ‘too hot’ nor ‘too cold’.
Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
22 January 2018
Our 2018 guide to the Middle East and African currency markets including FAB’s capabilities in each.
Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy
10 January 2018
Global financial markets are facing a potentially more challenging environment in 2018/2019 as central banks begin to pare back monetary and fiscal stimulus and embark on the (hopefully gradual) process of balance sheet normalization. The velocity of this normalization process will be key to how global markets react. To avoid adverse reaction across the risk asset space, central banks need to convey ‘dovish tightening strategies’. Time will tell.
Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
