UAE 
13 June 2025
Our initial thoughts on Israel’s unilateral attack on Iran on 13th June morning.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
First Abu Dhabi Bank
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Hot Topics
Our global markets team analysis on the big stories of the moment across the region.
Oil Market Update – Q1 2025
24 March 2025
Various factors have been behind the sharp sell-off in crude prices over the past two months, including the impact US trade tariffs may have on global economic growth. In this note, we discuss these key drivers well as some potentially more supportive factors such as rising geopolitical risks.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
The Oil Market – 2024/25
6 December 2024
This past year has been another rather mixed one for crude prices, with geopolitical risks and OPEC+ cuts providing support, whilst ongoing uncertainty on the outlook for global demand especially with China’s economic recovery continuing to look tepid at best, combined with a strong US dollar has kept the upside limited too. In this piece we briefly summarize the current state of the oil market and what may lie ahead in 2025 and beyond.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
Key Risks In 2025
5 December 2024
As 2024 draws to a close, the impact of the past 12 months from conflicts to hotly contested elections will no doubt continue to be felt in the year ahead. In this piece we focus on a few of the key risks to keep an eye on in 2025, some of which are not that new but are becoming far more acute in our polarized world.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
US Election 2024
08 August 2024
By the end of this year more than 65 countries will have held national elections, including several of the world’s largest democracies such as India, Indonesia, UK and the US. But it’s the latter poll that contains the greatest element of risk from both a political and economic standpoint. In this short piece we explain why that is and what could be the most likely outcome.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
House View on Oil – June 2024
20 June 2024
Oil prices had a mixed performance during the first half of this year, as traders attempted to digest various factors including geopolitical risks, OPEC+ actions, US output, a strong US dollar and demand uncertainty. In this note we analyze the current state of the crude market and its near-term outlook.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
Five Key Risks in 2024
23 November 2023
As the old-world order continues to fade and a far more polarized one appears to be taking its place, in this piece attached we discuss five of the major risks facing us in the year ahead. While US-China relations and Climate Change, which were listed in our ‘Key Risks for 2023’ publication feature again, we also discuss a few additional challenges to focus on in 2024.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
Oil Market Overview: 2023/24
16 November 2023
After entering the second half of this year with a bullish tone, supported by a tightening global supply picture and falling inventories, crude prices slipped back in early November as demand fears re-emerged. In this research note we analyze the performance of the oil market in 2023 and discuss the outlook for 2024.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
Climate Change vs Energy Security
08 August 2023
In this piece, we have tried to briefly outline the serious risks that climate change poses to our planet. However, the transition to cleaner energy also needs to be well-planned and stable, otherwise it could put humanity at an even greater risk in the near term. Therefore whilst acknowledging the fact that climate change is a real and present danger, we also suggest that that the world will need certain fossil fuels such as oil and gas for some time to come in order to manage this energy transition correctly.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
Oil Market Update – Q3 2023
11 July 2023
As we begin the third quarter of 2023, the crude oil market remains trapped between the same headwinds and tailwinds experienced during the previous first two quarters, such as global macroeconomic concerns, supply and demand fundamentals as well as a geopolitical issues. In this piece, we analyze these issues and explain why we are still cautiously optimistic on the outlook for prices for the second half of this year.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
Oil Market Flash Note – Q1 2023
22 March 2023
As we near the end of the first quarter of 2023, crude prices have recently come under strong downward pressure; due primarily to a fresh wave of risk aversion. In this flash-note, we review the current state of the oil market and the key factors to keep an eye on going forward.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist
The UAE’s Clean Energy Drive
23 January 2023
The UAE has been a pioneer in planning and implementing a clean energy program within the hydrocarbons industry, a journey that began over 16 years ago. In this piece, we look at the UAE’s various achievements in this area so far and its long-term plans to achieve net zero.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist
Key Risks In 2023
24 November 2022
In our previous ‘Key Risks’ outlook, which was published back in January this year, we listed food prices as one of the major issues to watch in 2022, as well as cybersecurity, Ukraine and US/China relations. All four remain a major concern and thus make a return in our ‘watch’ list for 2023 attached, albeit from a more nuanced standpoint.
Glenn Wepener, Chief Strategist
US Midterm Elections 2022:
'It’s the economy stupid’
03 November 2022
The US midterm elections are now less than one week away and although they do not involve the Presidency directly, they will have an effect on the direction of the country as well as influencing the playing field for the 2024 general election. Historically the party of the incumbent in the White House usually loses seats to the opposition in Congress at this halfway point of their term, but will this trend repeat itself in 2022? In this piece we take a look at the current polling statistics and discuss the potential outcome.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
The Oil Market - Q4 Update: Clouds on the Horizon
20 October 2022
As we head through the final quarter of this year, the crude market remains bullish with a range of structurally supportive factors. The outlook for 2023 however, is somewhat more cloudy with building economic and geopolitical uncertainties. In this note, we analyse the current state of the oil market and highlight key issues to watch in the months to come.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
The Oil Market: Headwinds & Tailwinds
21 June 2022
Despite the recent large-scale sell-off across most risk assets and a strong US dollar, oil prices remain entrenched above US$100 a barrel for now, driven by supply constraints and geopolitics, but headwinds are beginning to build. In this update, we discuss the current state of the crude market and highlight the issues to keep an eye on during the second half of 2022.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Egypt - 'Fresh Challenges Ahead'
07 June 2022
Our latest update on Egypt in which we recap some its major economic achievements since 2016 and consider the new challenges it now faces.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Insights: Food Insecurity & Political Risks
23 May 2022
The lingering impact of COVID-19 continues to disrupt supply logistics which, combined with climate change and more recently the Ukraine crisis, has led to record energy and food prices. In this attached note ‘Food Insecurity & Political Risks’ we outline the scale of this problem and why it poses a serious risk to socio-economic and political stability around the globe.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Insights: Oil Market - Flash Note
07 March 2022
Crude prices are currently approaching levels not seen since 2008, while the benchmark for natural gas in Europe reached an all-time high of EUR212 per MWh at the end of last week. In our latest flash note, we discuss the current state of the oil market and highlight key risks to watch in the near term.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Insights: The Ukraine Crisis
01 March 2022
In our opinion, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the most important geostrategic event since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and will lead to a complete revision of foreign policy and security considerations across the globe, especially in the west. In this piece attached, we consider the impact this situation is having from an economic and political standpoint and why it will likely have lasting repercussions.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Key Risks in 2022
11 January 2022
The greatest health crisis that the world has faced since 1918 severely disrupted everyone’s lives as well as the global economy in 2020/21. Admittedly this crisis is not over yet and it remains a key risk in 2022, but there are hopeful signs that it is now moving towards becoming an epidemic rather than a pandemic. Looking at the year ahead there are several other more man-made concerns to bear in mind and in this piece we try to highlight some of these.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
2022 Oil Market Outlook
12 December 2021
In this publication, we discuss the key drivers for the oil market in the year ahead.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa - 'Ones to Watch'
08 November 2021
Our brief analysis on three sub-Saharan countries which don’t appear often on the radar of mainstream investors, but nonetheless have an interesting socio-economic story to tell.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Insights: Angola - 'Rich & Poor'
08 September 2021
As the next general election in Angola approaches, we take a fresh look at the current state of the nation and whether any progress has been made in recent years to diversify the economy away from its decades long and heavy reliance on crude oil.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Oil Flash Note – 'Will the bulls run out of puff?'
06 July 2021
In this publication, we discuss the latest developments in the oil market and review the outcome of the recent OPEC+ meeting.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
The Clean Energy Transition -
‘A Material Question’
19 May 2021
Our brief analysis on the clean energy transition, with a focus on some of critical materials required by the renewables sector. We also discuss how ‘rare’ and how ‘green’ are these metals and minerals and who controls them.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Crude Oil Market Update – Flash Note
15 March 2021
In this publication, we discuss the current state of the oil market and our adjusted price outlook.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Key Geopolitical Risks in 2021
25 January 2021
In this publication, we consider the risk COVID-19 still poses to the world and list a number of other potential geopolitical risks to keep an eye on this year
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB ‘House View’ on oil
16 December 2020
Our MIS team’s latest ‘House View’ on crude oil which discusses the extremely tough conditions in 2020 and their outlook for 2021.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Egypt – ‘On the Rebound’
07 December 2020
Our MIS team gives their latest macro overview and outlook for Egypt.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Flash Note - US Election Nov 2020
“Biden Wins But Tough Road Ahead”
09 November 2020
Our latest analysis on the US Election and the challenges President-elect Biden still faces.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Flash Note - US Election
‘From a Pandemic to a Potential Political Crisis’
05 October 2020
The bombshell news that President Trump, along with his wife and a number of other White House officials, were diagnosed with COVID-19 last week has the potential to precipitate a major political crisis and has certainly reduced the incumbent’s chances of being re-elected. In this brief flash note we discuss the impact this news could have on the upcoming election.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Insights:
US Election November 2020 – “It’s not over until it’s over.”
07 September 2020
As the countdown towards the most hotly debated US election in decades gathers pace and following on from our previous analysis in May: ‘A Viral Election’, we take a fresh look at the chances of both candidates and whether or not their political fortunes have shifted since then..
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Flash Note - The Oil Market
Lockdown Blues May Hamper Further Gains for Now
02 July 2020
In our latest ‘Flash note on oil’, we discuss the recent slow but steady recovery in demand and potential risks going forward, as well as two new benchmarks and our current price forecasts.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Insights: US Ballot 2020 – ‘A Viral Election’
28 May 2020
Our analysis of the current domestic political landscape in the US and how the ongoing health/economic global crisis could affect the outcome of the Presidential Elections in November
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Macro Strategy: Alphabet Soup
06 May 2020
With the global economy having been floored by COVID-19 over the past few months there is now much debate and argument as to whether the trajectory of the aspirational global economic recovery over the coming months might be ‘V-‘ or ‘U-‘shaped in nature, or indeed some other letter. In our latest macroeconomic strategy piece we analyze the prospects for such recovery post Covid-19
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
FAB Insights: Geopolitics - "Known Unknowns"
05 May 2020
Our geopolitical piece in which we discuss the difference between ‘Black and Grey Swan’ events, and suggest a few potential global flashpoints that should be watched over the coming year.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Insights: Oil Market Flash Note
21 April 2020
TOur brief analysis of the latest key developments in the crude oil market.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Insights: Flash Note Oil
13 April 2020
Our brief thoughts on the oil output cut agreement which was formalized recently.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB Insights: Oil Market Flash Note
03 April 2020
Our brief analysis of the latest key developments in the crude oil market.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
FAB House View - Global Rates (Update March 2020)
23 March 2020
Let’s face it, global rates and equities today are nowhere near where we generally thought they would be by the end of Q1 back at the start of the year. At the turn of 2020 the growing hope and assumption was that a gradual improvement in global growth conditions would fuel a modest uptick in yields during the year, albeit with monetary policy perhaps on hold through the year. BUT… COVID-19 has rapidly turned all such forecasts upside-down.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist
FAB Market Insights : House View on Oil
23 March 2020
The sudden oil price ‘war’ between Saudi Arabia and Russia looks set to continue for months to come and this situation, combined with the global health crisis, will keep crude prices low for the rest of this year and probably into 2021 too. However, there is hope that a medical solution will be found sooner than later, and in our opinion this should kickstart demand again relatively quickly.
Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist, Middle East & Africa
Negative bond yields - From Feast to Famine
12 February 2020
The global macro environment of the past 5 years, in the post sovereign debt crisis era, has seen a seismic shift in financial market dynamics, especially in the Eurozone as a result of central bank intervention. In this paper we explore the current and deepening metrics surrounding negative bond yields, and whether this is now a ticking time-bomb.
Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist
Thoughts on Coronavirus
03 February 2020
In this report we provide our thoughts on the potential implications of the Coronavirus on the global economy and markets. Please read on.
Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist
Top 10 Risks In 2020(Geopolitics)
06 January 2020
Despite a significant rise in the number of geopolitical, geo-economic and environmental events across the globe in recent years, the financial markets as a whole have continued to react with a somewhat complacent tone to such developments thus far, but history teaches us that things can change quickly. The year ahead still contains many of these existing risks (i.e. climate change) as well as a few new ones. So in this our first ‘Hot Topics’ publication for 2020 we list (in no particular order), ten important issues that we feel should be watched this year and beyond.Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist – Middle East & Africa
The House View on Oil (2020 Outlook)
19 December 2019
Our latest ‘house view’ on the current state of the global oil market and the outlook for 2020.Glenn Wepener, Senior Strategist – Middle East & Africa
Reform in KSA ‘No longer a mirage’
16 December 2019
Saudi Arabia is currently undergoing momentous change, and whilst a number of the ‘Vision 2030’ reforms have already made the headlines, we wanted to highlight what else is actually taking place on the ground both socially and economically, which many external viewers may not be aware of.
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Senior Geopolitical Analyst
Dissecting a Huge Night in U.K. Politics
13 December 2019
Our macro strategy reaction and outlook to the U.K. General Election results. We hope you will find it informative and useful.
Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist
The House View on Oil
23 September 2019
The recent events in Saudi Arabia appear to have finally reminded market participants that a risk premium is required especially during these times of growing geopolitical fault lines across the globe, whilst the eventual outcome of the US/China trade talks also remains a key focus.Glenn Wepener, Executive Director
Dissecting the Fed
19 September 2019
In the wake of the latest U.S. fed funds rate cut by the Federal Reserve, please find attached herewith our dissection of the Fed’s decision and accompanying language.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
Confident but not complacent - At times like this we show our strength
17 September 2019
In the aftermath of the shocking attack on the oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia, FAB’s Market Insights team is of the opinion that negativity about the GCC bonds and sukuk market is overdone. In this brief commentary we provide our views on this asset class in the context of recent events.
Chavan Bhogaita, Managing Director & Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Macro Strategy - Brexit Bulletin
20 August 2019
We have long held the view that given the split, divisive nature of the Brexit polemic that a hard, no-deal result would likely be the only feasible outcome. We see no way for a compromise to be achieved in time and of late, with the installation of the new Boris Johnson pro-Brexit administration, the market seems to be increasingly in agreement with us.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
FAB Trader's View on Recent Market Volatility
08 August 2019
In the context of recent market volatility, the traders within FAB’s Global Markets team have provided their views and insights on interest rates, yield curves, currencies and oil.
FAB Global Markets
Thoughts on GBP post Monday’s plunge
30 July 2019
With Boris Johnson having won the keys to No.10 Downing Street and the phrase ‘hard, no-deal Brexit’ being used by him and many of his government ministers, the market is now waking up to reality. We maintain our long-held view that a ‘hard Brexit’ will be the most likely outcome to the polemic, a scenario that GBP has not priced in.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
The House View on Rates
30 April 2019
Our newly inaugurated publication, First Abu Dhabi Bank’s ‘house view’ on U.S., Eurozone and U.K. interest rates. For each central bank (Fed, ECB and BOE) we discuss current macroeconomic conditions, challenges and opportunities facing policy makers and set out our 12-month outlook expectations for rates.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
Aramco - This is Big
10 April 2019
Saudi Aramco has executed its inaugural bond issue with a blockbuster transaction that generated an order book close to $100 billion. In this report our Market Insights team provides an initial analysis of the transaction as well as some interesting charts that highlight the true scale of Aramco.
Chavan Bhogaita, Rakesh Sahu
Market Insights & Strategy
Lebanon – Muddling Through
9 April 2019
Our brief analysis of the current economic and political situation in Lebanon.
Glenn Wepener
Market Insights & Strategy
Oman - Pressure to Reform
18 March 2019
In the context of recent concerns about Oman’s economic and fiscal situation, please find attached our latest analysis of the Sultanate along with an overview of the sovereign’s economy, debt burden, and its plans for reform. Overall, we believe the bearish sentiment on the Oman story is somewhat overdone and feel that comparisons to the Bahrain ‘crisis’ last year are wide of the mark.
Chavan Bhogaita, Glenn Wepener, Simon Ballard, Rakesh Sahu
Market Insights & Strategy
2019 Risk Outlook – ‘ V for Volatility’
02 January 2019
Our suggestions on which potentially major geopolitical and market related risks investors should be keeping an eye on in 2019.
Glenn Wepener & Simon Ballard
Market Insights & Strategy
Oil Market Outlook 2019 and Beyond
28 November 2018
The outlook for oil has become somewhat more difficult to judge especially in the longer term. In this interview with Refintiv, FAB oil and geopolitical strategist Glenn Wepener discusses the crude market’s recovery since 2016 and what to look out for in the years ahead.
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy
Brexit Update: Still a clear and present danger
Hot topics – 22 November 2018
More than just the pure economic arguments, for and against Brexit, that have driven the narrative over the past two years, it is now political uncertainty that is weighing most heavily on U.K. risk asset, and currency, sentiment. We believe that the Brexit polemic is about to get even more interesting.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
Ethiopia: An East African ‘Renaissance’ Story
Hot topics –16 October 2018
Ethiopia’s economic growth continues to be impressive and the initial steps taken by the country’s young and energetic Prime Minister have already borne fruit both internally and externally. However some political and economic challenges remain which we discuss within our latest review of the country.
Glenn Wepener - Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africat
Brexit: What next? We try to demystify the polemic
Hot topics –25 September 2018
The Brexit process, or lack thereof, in the U.K. is currently raising more questions among investors than it is answering. What we do know is that the U.K. will exit the EU on March 29th 2019, with or without a ‘deal’. If there is a ‘deal’ then a two year transition period will follow for settling all the minutiae. With the deadline for reaching a deal between Westminster and Brussels – the need to agree terms on the future trading, economic and political relationship between the two regions – becoming ever closer, investors want clarity. In this latest research paper, we attempt to offer some answers to investors’ current concerns and questions over Brexit, as well as to offer some clarity on where the Brexit story and the direction of U.K. risk sentiment may go from here.
Simon Ballard - Executive Director & Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
China & Arabia – The Return of the Silk Road
Hot topics – 07 August 2018
In this paper we focus primarily on China’s ancient and modern links with the Middle East and discuss the potential outcome the resumption of this mega-project could have on the region and beyond.
Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy
Bahrain: Battered But Not Broken
Hot topics – 11 June 2018
With Bahrain’s current fiscal situation under the media spotlight recently, we conducted an analysis of the issue and conclude that the economic picture may not be as bad as it appears on the surface.
Chavan Bhogaita, Managing Director & Head of Market Insights & Strategy Glenn Wepener, Exec. Director & Geopolitical Analyst Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist Rakesh Sahu, Analyst
UAE Real Estate ‘‘Foundations for Optimism’
Hot Topics – 19 April 2018
In our latest review of UAE real estate, “Foundations for Optimism” we find that a soft, but nonetheless cautiously optimistic tone continues to characterize the UAE property market. After the correction seen in real estate prices during 2014/2015 the market is now showing some encouraging signs of underlying price support, although with evidence of extensive incentives being used by landlords to retain incumbent tenants or entice new ones, market conditions are still far from strong.
Simon Ballard, Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
India & the UAE ‘Trading Places’
Hot Topics – 05 April 2018
Trading between the UAE and India go back centuries. In this piece we look briefly at the UAE’s more modern history and how its relations with India became so intertwined.
Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy
Bahrain’s First $ Debt Issue of 2018, but Perhaps Not the Last…
Hot Topics – 28 March 2018
The Kingdom of Bahrain is in the market with its first deal of 2018, a 7.5 year sukuk transaction. Given the country’s budget deficit, recent ratings downgrades, etc, this sukuk deal is one that needs to succeed. Furthermore, given the magnitude of the country’s funding requirements, we don’t see today’s deal as being the Kingdom’s only transaction for 2018 and hence expect further issuance during the year. Watch this space….
Rakesh Sahu – Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy
Chavan Bhogaita, MD & Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Aldar + Emaar: There’s More to it than a JV
Hot Topics – 21 March 2018
The announcement of a joint venture between two of the UAE’s leading property developers - Aldar and Emaar – is more significant than may first meet the eye. We believe the collaboration is of huge strategic importance to Abu Dhabi, Dubai and the country as a whole
Chavan Bhogaita, MD & Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Global Remittances - A Brief Overview
Hot Topics – 18 March 2018
Global remittances have undergone substantial transformation and growth over the past 50 years, and furthermore it is likely that this transformation will be even more pronounced in the coming years as a result of technological advances. In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provides a broad overview of Global Remittances and highlights some of the key factors aspects of this market.
Mohamed Ali Al Shamsi, Market Insights & Strategy
Saudi Arabia - Shifting Sands
Hot Topics – 12 March 2018
There is an ancient Arabic proverb which literally translated into English reads: “You cannot change the wind, but you can adjust the sail.” Although having originated a long time ago it could still be used today to highlight Saudi Arabia’s recently unveiled and unprecedented program of social and economic change. While foreign media headlines and investors may currently be focused on the discussion over where and when Aramco will be listed, other equally important events are either already underway or due to take place this year, thus we try and discuss these in the following piece.
Glenn Wepener -Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst, Middle East & Africa
Italian Elections: Uncertainty Seems to be a Certainty
Hot Topics – 04 March 2018
Italy has long been a country characterised by a fragmented political landscape and unstable governments. The latest elections are unlikely to yield anything different. From a financial markets perspective, the results of this latest election could be even further reaching, carrying the potential to create a sharp spike in market volatility and to call into question the future of the eurozone project.
Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
World Economic Forum 2018; What to Watch For
Hot Topics - 22 January 2018
The annual 4-day World Economic Forum (WEF) begins in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland tomorrow (January 23) and investors will be watching carefully for market-moving headlines. With India’s Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump expected to book-end the proceedings, and with a diverse range of debates in between, there should be plenty to interest the market. In this brief overview we highlight what we believe will be the key areas to watch.
Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
Read the full article
The annual 4-day World Economic Forum (WEF) begins in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland tomorrow (January 23) and investors will be watching carefully for market-moving headlines. With India’s Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump expected to book-end the proceedings, and with a diverse range of debates in between, there should be plenty to interest the market. In this brief overview we highlight what we believe will be the key areas to watch.
Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
Angola – Change Is In The Air
Hot Topics – 31 January 2018
Since the appointment of only the second Angolan President in 38 years a series of important policy actions have been initiated. We take a brief look at these and the potential outlook for this important oil producing country.
Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy
Global Macro Thoughts
Hot Topics – 10 January 2018
Global financial markets are facing a potentially more challenging environment in 2018/2019 as central banks begin to pare back monetary and fiscal stimulus and embark on the (hopefully gradual) process of balance sheet normalization. The velocity of this normalization process will be key to how global markets react. To avoid adverse reaction across the risk asset space, central banks need to convey ‘dovish tightening strategies’. Time will tell.
Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy
Oman to Print 2018’s First Bond Deal from the GCC
Hot Topics – 10 January 2018
The Sultanate of Oman is currently marketing a 3-tranched bond deal. FAB’s Market Insights team has provided some initial thoughts on this transaction.
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy; Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Cryptocurrencies - Back to the Future
Hot Topics – 10 January 2018
Digital currencies have become all the rage this past year, but could another ‘bubble’ market be forming and will the technology itself change the way we do business in the future?
Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy
SUDAN: A Window Of Opportunity
Hot Topics – 18 December 2017
The recent lifting of US sanctions on Sudan has potentially provided the country with a window of opportunity to re-join the global community following a long period of relative isolation. However it still faces numerous economic and political challenges and these are the issues we attempt to analyse here.
Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy
Oil Barrels Along
Hot Topics – 9 November 2017
Those of you who have been following our oil market commentaries for the past 12 to 18 months will already be aware of our optimistic outlook for crude prices since WTI dipped briefly below US$30 a barrel back in February 2016, and which we suggested was likely to be the bottom for this latest major cycle. Since then the market has staged a pretty respectable recovery but is there room to go further?
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa
Bahrain Prints $3bn Deal - Anyone Still Doubting Investor Demand?
Hot Topics – 14 September 2017
Bahrain’s successful $3bn three-tranche sovereign transaction shows pretty clearly that there is still substantial investor appetite for GCC paper. FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team have produced a brief commentary on this deal.
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy
Bahrain‘s New Bond/Sukuk Combo – A Good Test of Investor Appetite?
Hot Topics – 13 September 2017
Following the Kingdom of Bahrain’s announcement of initial price talk for its 3-tranche bond and sukuk transaction, FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provides a quick overview of the deal along with some relative value analysis.
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy
Take Two - Kenya’s Presidential Election To Be Re-run
Hot Topics – 04 September 2017
Markets have begun to reflect growing concerns over the potential for extended political turbulence in Kenya, after the country’s High Court declared the latest Presidential election’s results invalid and ordered fresh elections be held within the next two months, due to ‘illegalities’ around the electronic transmission of paper results. We expect pressure on Kenyan assets to continue in the near term, at least until the poll has been re-run.
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa
Off The Beaten Track
Hot Topics – 24 July 2017
Smaller Sub-Saharan countries such as Djibouti, Mauritius and Rwanda have made significant advances both politically and economically over the past few years, but do not quite get the same degree of limelight as the larger countries in Africa. While facing numerous and ongoing challenges, these economies highlight the true potential and hope for the world’s largest continent as well as dispel some of its myths.
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa
Egypt – Quiet Progress
Hot Topics – 18 June 2017
While a number of major geo-political events such as the ongoing investigation into Russian meddling of the US elections, sabre-rattling by North Korea, Brexit and the more recent Qatar dispute, continue to take-up much of the global media headlines and analysis, Egypt has quietly been making progress on the economic front since it floated the pound and signed up to an IMF program late last year.(...)
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa
VAT in the GCC
Hot Topics – 1 June 2017
A quick primer on the VAT implementation in the GCC. There is of course much more information yet to come in terms of VAT – such as the granular details about how and when it will be implemented in each of the Gulf states. Please watch this space for further updates in this regard.
Alp Eke, Senior Economist
Omar Abdulhadi, Associate Director & Analyst
Oman Markets Its Debut US$ Sukuk Issue
Hot Topics – 23 May 2017
Following on from its successful bond issue in March, the Sultanate of Oman is now back in the debt capital market – this time selling a debut 7-year sukuk transaction. NBAD’s Market Insights team has published its initial thoughts and relative value analysis in the attached document.
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy
Words of War – The ‘Un’-doing Of North Korea
Hot Topics – 01 May 2017
In 1962 the world came the closest it’s yet been to a nuclear war, fortunately cool heads eventually prevailed both in the White House and Moscow as diplomacy overcame sabre-rattling and the rest of humanity breathed a huge sigh of relief. Now in 2017 are we facing another ‘missile crisis’ which, with very different personalities making decisions in Washington and Pyongyang compared to Kennedy and Khrushchev, has the potential to lead us down a road where diplomacy takes a back seat this time round?
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa
Saudi King Orders Cabinet Reshuffle & Restores Allowances
Hot Topics – 24 April 2017
The King of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz, issued a number of decrees this past weekend including a reversal of certain austerity measures and a minor cabinet reshuffle.
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa
Iraq Politics & Economics – The Next Battle
Hot Topics – 13 April 2017
Over the past few years, the primary focus for the Iraqi government – in tandem with its local and foreign partners – has been and remains working to defeat ISIS. They now appear close to achieving this goal. Reconstruction, dealing with the humanitarian crises and establishing political stability across the country will then be their next and probably even greater challenge.
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa Omar Abdulhadi, Associate Director & Analyst
Saudi Arabia’s Pivot to Asia
Hot Topics – 23 March 2017
Asia was the prime destination for Saudi Arabia’s oil sales last year taking just under 70% of the country’s total crude exports. As the Kingdom adjusts its domestic and foreign strategic goals, a number of factors including King Salman’s three-week long tour of Asia and Saudi Aramco’s recent energy related acquisitions, suggest an increased focus on that region.
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa
Kuwait Prints $8bn of Bonds & Pledges Prudent Borrowing Strategy
Hot Topics – 14 March 2017
Following the successful issuance of $8 billion of bonds by the State of Kuwait, NBAD’s Market Insights team has published this report with their initial take on the transaction and brief relative value analysis versus other GCC sovereign debt.
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy
Kuwait Minus Thirty
Hot Topics – 13 March 2017
The State of Kuwait has released initial details for its much anticipated jumbo bond issue. In this report our Market Insights team discusses the transaction and also provides some relative value analysis versus other GCC sovereigns.
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy
Kenya – East African Power House Faces a Difficult 2017
Hot Topics – 03 March 2017
Despite an ongoing challenge by Ethiopia and Tanzania, Kenya has thus far managed to cling onto its spot as East Africa’s largest economy displaying a robust performance over the past few years, with 2016 proving to be no different as the country’s GDP expanded by 5.90%. However the year ahead could be a much more difficult one especially on the financial and political side.
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa
Fixed Income – Oman Successfully Prints $5bn in Bonds
Hot Topics – 02 March 2017
Oman not only joined the new issue party but made quite an entrance with its $5bn transaction yesterday – the largest ever single deal printed by the Sultanate. In this report we summarise details of the issue and provide some relative value comparisons versus other GCC sovereign paper.
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy
Fixed Income – Oman Joins the New Issue Party
Hot Topics – 01 March 2017
The Sultanate of Oman has today announced initial price target information for its forthcoming 3-tranche bond deal. In this report we look at the key comparables within the GCC sovereign space and provide some relative value observations.
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy
Nigerian Naira – Pressure Building
Hot Topics – 23 February 2017
With rumours of another possible Naira devaluation doing the rounds following the latest foreign exchange policy actions by the Nigerian Central Bank, we discuss the potential effect these changes may have and whether or not they will be enough to restore liquidity and confidence in the local currency.
Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa.
Morocco - North Africa’s Star?
04 January 2017
With most of the North African region continuing to face severe political and economic challenges, one country in the Maghreb has managed to overcome some of its own domestic issues and markedly outperform its neighbours over the past few years. But after a relatively lacklustre 2016 will Morocco be able to move forward again this year?
A Quick Glance in the Rear View Mirror
25 December 2016
Just as we had all re-wired our brains to write 2016 instead of ’15 we realised that we were already part way into the year, and thereafter – as always – the months flew past. Here we are now, in the last few days of the year and bidding farewell to what has been a pretty eventful year in more ways than one.
Chavan Bhogaita, NBAD's Global Head of Market Insights & Strategy
President Trump and the Middle East
16 November 2016
The US presidential election results took forecasters by surprise. Let’s try and analyze what a Trump administration could mean for the Middle East.
Egyptian Pound Finally Unshackled
08 November 2016
Insights team present their analysis of the situation, provide some useful context, and give some colour on the implications of this move
Egypt’s Currency Dilemma
01 November 2016
The news this past Sunday that Egypt had finalized a US$2.7 bio currency swap agreement with China was a welcome development!
Trump vs Clinton: Final Countdown
25 October 2016
As Election Day approaches, it is worth considering what Donald Trump’s economic proposals could mean for the USA and the world.
KSA Enters the EM World in Style
24 October 2016
Saudi Arabia’s blockbuster sovereign bond issue truly conquered the emerging markets fixed income space last week!
Saudi Arabia: The Kingdom Commeth
19 October 2016
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia yesterday announced its much awaited super jumbo bond issuance. FAB’s Market Insights and Strategy team provide their initial take on the deal.
Debt the Answer to KSA Conundrum?
17 October 2016
Saudi Arabia needs cash as part of its attempt to deal with substantial budget deficit. The indication that it may be done across 5, 10 and 30 year tenors shows that the Kingdom is thinking longer term.
Oil – Which Way Is Up?
27 September 2016
"Since January this year we have been warning about the growing risk of a potential oil price spike in the near to medium term (...)"
Tunisia Awaiting a Miracle - 24 August 2016
Following the peaceful “Jasmine” revolution of 2011, Tunisia struggles to replicate its political achievements on the economic front.
Turkey: A Bumpy Road Ahead – 25 July 2016
S&P downgraded Turkey further into junk status; Moodys & Fitch have put the country’s ratings under review.
US Elections 2016: Mathematics vs Hype – 19 July 2016
The reason we believe Clinton will win over Donald Trump is based on basic numbers.
Saudi Arabia National Transformation Plan – 07 June 2016
The Saudi Council of Economic and Development Affairs approved the National Transformation Plan (NTP), a pivotal element of the Vision 2030.
Saudi Arabia: All Change – 10 May 2016
The latest raft of ministerial changes is another step in the direction of diversification. Reforms promised are unprecedented.
Saudi Arabia’s 2030 Vision – A Snapshot – 26 April 2016
The Kingdom’s “Vision 2030” plan involves a series of major economic and social reforms with ambitious targets.
Abu Dhabi – Additional Steps Towards Diversification – 13 April 2016
Abu Dhabi authorities have announced additional levies that are likely to generate material incremental revenues for the Government.
Saudi Arabia – The Kingdom Strikes Back – 06 April 2016
Saudi Arabia has substantial assets, financial reserves, and a host of options in its ‘tool kit’ to get through the current challenges.
Egypt – Investors Required – 15 March 2016
Egypt’s economy has suffered a severe downturn since the 2011 revolution as foreign investors and tourists deserted the country due to the subsequent social instability (...)
Angola – From Boom to Bust – 16 February 2016
Africa’s second largest oil producer relies almost entirely on crude oil sales which account for more than 75% of government revenues and 95% of the country’s foreign exchange inflows (...)
Iran’s Potential Oil Bonanza – 4 February 2016
There has been a lot of excitement and comment this past year about Iran’s full return to the oil and gas markets as sanctions are lifted and blocked overseas funds released.
Naira on the Edge? – 12 January 2016
Nigeria’s Central Bank will no longer sell hard currency to the Bureaux de Change firms and allow commercial banks to resume accepting US dollar deposits.
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