Macro Strategy and Economic Updates

25 August 2022

In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a snapshot of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro-economic perspective, our current outlook for the oil market, and a summary of FAB’s MENA FX and rates capabilities.

Mohamed Ali AlShamsi, Analyst

22 July 2022

In what was a surprisingly hawkish move late yesterday, the European Central Bank executed its ‘lift off’ strategy with a larger-than-anticipated 50bp interest rate increase. More tightening may follow in the coming months as the monetary window narrows. As always, the devil was in the detail though and on this occasion the devil disappointed, in terms of the new crisis management tool – the Transmission Protection Instrument.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

08 June 2022

As the global economy faces up to the challenges of historically high levels of inflation on the one hand and the economic consequences of central banks’ monetary tightening response on the other, the GCC region with its solid sovereign credit fundamentals, buoyed by the recent strength in the oil price, continues to offer investors a relative haven. Please read on…

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

17 May 2022

Our latest Macro Strategy publication in which we update Global Rates and GCC Macro outlooks for 2022.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

20 December 2021

Notwithstanding all the confusion at the time of the Bank’s November MPC meeting, when the market was subliminally told to brace for a rate hike, only for the BoE to then ‘disappoint’ and fail to deliver, we believe that last week’s (token 15bps) rate increase in the Bank Rate to 0.25% will soon prove to have been a policy mistake. Here’s why...

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

15 December 2021

Our latest Macro Strategy publication in which we set our Global Rates and GCC Macro outlooks for 2022.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

16 September 2021

In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers a macroeconomic snapshot of the region, our outlook on the GCC economy and oil market, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.

Mohamed Ali AlShamsi, Analyst
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst

07 September 2021

The positive macroeconomic diversification story of the United Arab Emirates moved to a new chapter this week as the government announced on September 5 its latest strategy to stimulate the domestic economy. Entitled ‘Projects of the 50’ to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the country in December this year, the government will embark on a series of stimulatory investments and also aim to ease residency rules for expats, all of which is designed to build the country’s status as a global hub for business and finance.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

08 July 2021

Back in Q4 2020 the global macro outlook for 2021 was generally founded on cautious optimism. Rates were anchored, the fiscal policy sluice gates were wide open, particularly so in the wake of President Biden’s election and the Covid-19 vaccination drive was well underway. Since then, financial markets have largely continued to price in a brightening horizon, notwithstanding a few road bumps and obstacles to risk asset sentiment along the way. There is still reason for optimism today, but perhaps not to the extent that the world was holding its breath for back in late 2020.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

17 May 2021

The buffeting headwinds and tailwinds of the current turbulent global macroeconomic landscape continue to fuel reassessment of the global interest rate outlook. In this respect, please find our latest analysis and outlook for global rates, entitled ‘Bearing All’.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

3 March 2021

Our latest macro strategy analysis in which we offer a preview of today’s U.K. Budget that will be delivered by Chancellor Sunak to the House of Commons.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

28 January 2021

Our latest macroeconomic analysis in which we discuss some of the key takeaways from this week’s (virtual) Davos 2021 symposium.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

25 January 2021

Our latest macroeconomic analysis in which we discuss some of the key macroeconomic risks facing global markets in 2021.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

17 December 2020

Our latest macro strategy publication in which we present our FAB House View of the Global Rates Outlook for 2021.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

07 September 2020

Our latest Macro Strategy outlook on U.K. fundamentals and the increasing risk of a ‘no trade deal’ Brexit at the end of this year.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

24 August 2020

In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a very simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers a macroeconomic snapshot of the region, our outlook on the GCC economy and oil market, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.

Glenn Wepener, Simon Ballard, Rakesh Sahu, Mohamed Al Shamsi - Market Insights & Strategy

04 August 2020

Our latest FAB Macro Strategy report in which we present an update on the Brexit situation. Amid all the focus on Covid-19 around the globe, we almost seem to have lost sight of what appears to increasingly be a Brexit cliff edge on December 31.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

28 May 2020

Our latest macro strategy publication entitled ‘Seeing Red’ in which we revisit and revise our 2020 GDP growth forecasts and outlook for the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Simon Ballard, Chief Economist

03 February 2020

In this report we provide our thoughts on the potential implications of the Coronavirus on the global economy and markets. Please read on.

Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist

08 January 2020

While the macro spotlight was firmly on the shifting sands of monetary policy last year as the Federal Reserve cut rates three times, as well as on U.S./China trade tensions and the subsequent cuts to global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, we herewith now offer what we believe may be global markets’ Top 10 Macro Challenges for 2020. This list is not exhaustive by any means, but is designed to be thought-provoking as investors finalise their investment strategies for the New Year.

Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist

18 December 2019

Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Chief Economist

13 December 2019

Our macro strategy reaction and outlook to the U.K. General Election results. We hope you will find it informative and useful.

20 August 2019

We have long held the view that given the split, divisive nature of the Brexit polemic that a hard, no-deal result would likely be the only feasible outcome. We see no way for a compromise to be achieved in time and of late, with the installation of the new Boris Johnson pro-Brexit administration, the market seems to be increasingly in agreement with us.

08 August 2019

In the context of recent market volatility, the traders within FAB’s Global Markets team have provided their views and insights on interest rates, yield curves, currencies and oil.

30 July 2019

With Boris Johnson having won the keys to No.10 Downing Street and the phrase ‘hard, no-deal Brexit’ being used by him and many of his government ministers, the market is now waking up to reality. We maintain our long-held view that a ‘hard Brexit’ will be the most likely outcome to the polemic, a scenario that GBP has not priced in.

19 June 2019

Our latest update on FAB’s ‘House View’ on U.S., Eurozone and U.K. interest rates. For each central bank (Fed, ECB and BOE) we discuss current macroeconomic conditions, challenges and opportunities facing policy makers and set out our 12-month outlook expectations for rates.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

02 May 2019

Our current ‘house view’ on the oil market : Despite the sharp drop in Iranian and Venezuelan exports, global producers are still able to pump enough extra crude to prevent the market from breaking sharply higher in the near term. Equally, better coordinated action by the OPEC/NOPEC countries and the formalization of an ‘OPEC+’ structure, combined with steady demand growth should continue to ensure that a dramatic drop in prices will also be avoided. Thus we maintain our view, which was first expressed in January this year that crude prices should average US$60 (WTI) and US$70 (Brent) in 2019.

Glenn Wepener - Market Insights & Strategy

30 April 2019

Our newly inaugurated publication, First Abu Dhabi Bank’s ‘house view’ on U.S., Eurozone and U.K. interest rates. For each central bank (Fed, ECB and BOE) we discuss current macroeconomic conditions, challenges and opportunities facing policy makers and set out our 12-month outlook expectations for rates.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

28 March 2019

In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a very simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers an economic snapshot of the region, our outlook on oil, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.

Glenn Wepener, Simon Ballard, Mohamed Al Shamsi, Rakesh Sahu - Market Insights & Strategy

18 March 2019

In the context of recent concerns about Oman’s economic and fiscal situation, please find attached our latest analysis of the Sultanate along with an overview of the sovereign’s economy, debt burden, and its plans for reform. Overall, we believe the bearish sentiment on the Oman story is somewhat overdone and feel that comparisons to the Bahrain ‘crisis’ last year are wide of the mark.

Chavan Bhogaita, Glenn Wepener, Simon Ballard, Rakesh  Sahu
Market Insights & Strategy

23 January 2019

The GCC fixed income market has experienced a solid start to 2019, both in terms of primary and secondary market performance. We expect this trend to continue as global macro uncertainties further highlight and enhance the relative value appeal of the GCC asset class’ strong underlying fundamentals, making an interesting and compelling case for continued capital investment flows in favour of this region and asset class.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy

02 January 2019

Our suggestions on which potentially major geopolitical and market related risks investors should be keeping an eye on in 2019.

Glenn Wepener & Simon Ballard
Market Insights & Strategy

20 December 2018

Ahead of the FOMC’s December rate decision , Simon Ballard, FAB Macro Strategist spoke to CNBC about his current outlook for U.S. monetary policy and that of the broader global macroeconomic situation.
Simon Ballard
Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

06 June 2018

In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a very simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers an economic snapshot of the region, our outlook on oil, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.

Glenn Wepener, Geopolitical Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Simon Ballard, Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Mohamed Al Shamsi, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets

19 April 2018

In our latest review of UAE real estate, “Foundations for Optimism” we find that a soft, but nonetheless cautiously optimistic tone continues to characterize the UAE property market. After the correction seen in real estate prices during 2014/2015 the market is now showing some encouraging signs of underlying price support, although with evidence of extensive incentives being used by landlords to retain incumbent tenants or entice new ones, market conditions are still far from strong.

Simon Ballard, Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy