01 December 2023
This year has marked central banks’ arrival at the pinnacle of the latest rate tightening cycle and we now expect the next rates moves by the Fed, the ECB and the BoE to be down. The bigger questions are when, by how much and how quickly?
In this Global Macro / Rates Outlook on 2024 we discuss the headwinds and tailwinds that will drive the economic outlook for the U.S., Europe, UK and GCC over the coming year. Optimists will argue that the stars have been aligning in recent months for the U.S. economy to experience a soft-landing. The latter has certainly been suggested by the recent resilience in U.S. retail sales data as well as easing price pressures such as PCE. In fact, some have gone so far as to label current (global) macro conditions as Goldilocks-like. Time will tell; please read on.
Simon Ballard, Chief Economist, Market Insights & Strategy