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Global Investment Outlook 2022

Investing for the Future

Introduction

Around the end of the 1960s, there was a significant turning point in the US economy; the share of services in the country’s gross domestic product exceeded the share of goods. In other words, the US moved from being a manufacturing economy to being a services-based one. In the early 1990s, the growing use of computers and the internet accelerated that change.

Foreword

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We may have gone further than usual this year in our Global Investment Outlook, but more than ever we are especially excited about the road ahead for the local MENA markets, with a special focus on UAE stocks.
Alain Marckus, Head of Asset Management
From regional, to global investment expertise
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The world acknowledged that the UAE is one of the best places on earth to be during the pandemic and was reminded of its importance as a global wealth center.
Samira Zakour, Head of Global Private Banking and Key Client Group
Delivering regional excellence in client advisory services

GCC Macro Outlook

The pandemic changed consumption patterns boosting the demand for goods just when production became more difficult due to supply chain and labour issues. This temporary shift boosted inflation and government spending creating a temporary glitch that is pushing central banks across the world into action.

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Learn more about GCC Macro Outlook
Learn more about GCC Macro Outlook
Learn more about GCC Macro Outlook

Crude Oil Update

The oil market faces cross-currents this year but the bullish tone related to the commodity is likely to continue. Even as the Chinese economy is expected to decelerate this year, Brent crude prices are likely to remain well-supported.

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Learn more about Crude Oil Update
Learn more about Crude Oil Update
Learn more about Crude Oil Update

Sub-Saharan Africa

After the rise of East Asia over the past 50 years, Africa is on cue to be the next growth engine for the world. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, offers several opportunities, and we do a deep dive on a few that deserve special attention: Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Rwanda.

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Learn more about Sub-Saharan Africa
Learn more about Sub-Saharan Africa
Learn more about Sub-Saharan Africa

Egypt: Sound Fiscal Policy and Strong Growth

Egypt is one of the leading economies in Africa, and its strong growth, positive real rates and stable government have increasingly attracted the focus of global investors.

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Learn more about Egypt: Sound Fiscal Policy and Strong Growth
Learn more about Egypt: Sound Fiscal Policy and Strong Growth
Learn more about Egypt: Sound Fiscal Policy and Strong Growth

Women and Wealth

Women now control 32% of global wealth and that share is growing. In the Middle East, the growth is even faster with female-owned wealth expected to grow by 9% a year. This will have many different implications for global and regional investors.

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Learn more about Women and Wealth
Learn more about Women and Wealth
Learn more about Women and Wealth

MENA Capital Markets Outlook

MENA Equities Outlook

In 2021, MENA equities as a class delivered a strong performance compared to global indices, and that is likely to continue this year as the countries in the region have changed rules creating liquidity and increasing the attractiveness of local stocks for international investors.

MENA Fixed Income Outlook

Successful vaccine rollouts, a faster reopening, increasing oil output and higher prices will continue to contribute to MENA’s economic growth and fiscal rebalancing, which bodes well for regional fixed income markets as they continue to expand and develop.

Emerging Markets Outlook

EM Bonds Outlook

With Asia set to reopen and the US dollar potentially reaching its apex along with the tightening cycle for many western emerging market central banks, the local EM currency bonds could become a very attractive proposition late this year.

EM Equities Outlook

Global allocators should probably always expect EM equities to trade at a large discount to developed country equities. They were trading at a larger than usual discount towards the end of 2021, but that discount may remain deeper as central banks in emerging markets and structural issues are resolved this year.

Africa FX

The Nigerian naira and the Zambian kwacha are likely to attract global investor attention this year, but their paths may differ.

Developed Markets Outlook

G3 FX Outlook

A hawkish pivot of the Fed in November has supported the US dollar’s strengthening trend, and that should continue to underpin currency trading in the first few months of the year.

Global Rates Outlook

Developed market central banks have started to reduce some of the extraordinary monetary easing implemented in the wake of the pandemic. This, however, is unlikely to dent still healthy global growth this year.

Global Equities Outlook

After a year of stellar performance, the drivers of performance may differ this year. Despite last year’s gains, a ‘melt-up’ is still possible as ‘fear of missing out’ takes hold. Earnings growth of close to 10% this year could also continue to support US markets, which are likely to remain in the lead.

Global Real Estate Outlook

The period since the pandemic presented a series of unprecedented challenges to the real estate sector. As a result, certain sectors have outperformed, and that divergence is likely to continue for several quarters.

Private Markets

Over the past 20 years, private market strategies have become one of the foundations of portfolios of institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds and pension funds. Individual investors to understand them better and use them.

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Crypto Primer

Cryptocurrencies has captured the imagination of investors globally, but most people who have sought it out do not really understand what it is. Here is a simple explanation.

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Exchange-traded Fund (ETF) Primer

ETFs have seen exponential growth over the past decade. What does that mean for markets and how do they work?

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