FOREWORD
After such difficult markets last year, and in the face of still challenging geopolitics, global and regional asset allocators have to deploy cash and manage portfolios. This year’s GIO theme – ‘Heading into a New Cycle’ - embodies renewed optimism, as we see risk asset prices looking across the valley of what could be an ‘instant’ slowdown. Investors will need to be bold. Meanwhile, our region looks very resilient indeed, driven by successful industrial diversification, and reforms. The clients of FAB can benefit from the entire team of economists and investment professionals whose views have been brought together here. We wish you all the best in the markets this year, and stand ready to help provide the advice you need.
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Development in MENA & Egypt: Macro & Markets
Developed Markets Outlook
The Outlook for Global Developed Market Equities
The global environment continues to be challenging as we enter 2023. The markets are still contending with geopolitical and other issues. We believe, however, that the October market low of 2022 will hold. A sharp recession will likely arrive in the US, but a pivot in Fed rhetoric should save the day. Forecasts by analysts should see further downward revisions, with one more down-leg in markets before investors begin to discount the earnings recovery we expect in 2024
The Outlook for Global Developed Bond Markets
Currently, Fed funds futures discount a peak of 4.86% after the June 2023 meeting. We believe that in the immediate months to come, high yields at the short end should protect investors, helped by the fact that many IG bonds are trading at significant discounts to par. From about mid-year onwards the combination of income and price appreciation should provide good total returns. As rate expectations peak the outlook for the broad asset class should improve.
Crude Oil & Carbon Trading
Developments in MENA & Egypt: Macro & Markets
Emerging Markets Outlook (ex-MENA)
Developed Markets Outlook
Developments in Investment Products & Solutions